For the first time in more than a decade, obesity rates in the United States are showing a small but promising decline. The recent drop may be linked to the widespread use of new weight loss medications like semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic. According to a groundbreaking study published in the JAMA Health Forum, the obesity rate ticked down from 46% in 2022 to 45.6% in 2023, marking the first reduction in over 10 years.
While the decline may seem marginal, experts are optimistic about the findings. “For the first time, the obesity curve is bending downward, and it signals hope for a condition that has been a significant public health challenge in America for decades,” said John Brownstein, co-author of the study and professor at Harvard Medical School.
The research team analyzed body mass index (BMI) data from 16.7 million adults over a 10-year period. BMI, a metric used to classify obesity, had been increasing year after year, peaking at an average of 30.24 in 2022. However, the study revealed a slight reduction to 30.21 in 2023.
Regions and Groups Leading the Decline
Certain demographics and regions appear to be driving the downward trend in obesity rates. Women and older adults, particularly those between 66 to 75 years, showed the most significant reductions. Additionally, the Southern United States reported a meaningful decline in obesity rates. This region, notably, has the highest rate of prescriptions for GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as semaglutide.
These drugs, which were originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, have recently gained immense popularity as weight loss treatments. Between 2019 and 2023, their use specifically for weight loss surged by a staggering 700%, according to a study published in Annals of Internal Medicine.
Semaglutide-based medications, including Wegovy and Ozempic, have been shown to reduce appetite, support weight loss, and improve overall metabolic health. Their increasing availability and effectiveness may explain why obesity rates are finally stabilizing or even decreasing.
Other Contributing Factors
While weight loss drugs are a major component of the decline, researchers suggest other factors may also be at play. For instance, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought lifestyle shifts that may be positively impacting health habits.
Benjamin Rader, co-author of the study and professor at Harvard Medical School, noted that emerging from the pandemic may have prompted individuals to adopt healthier behaviors. “People are becoming more active again, breaking the sedentary habits they developed during prolonged lockdowns,” he explained.
The study also acknowledges that regions with high obesity rates, such as the South, were disproportionately impacted by COVID-19-related deaths. This complex relationship between obesity, public health, and pandemic outcomes cannot be ignored when evaluating the recent data.
An Ongoing Health Crisis
Despite the encouraging decline, experts emphasize that obesity remains a major public health crisis in the United States. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) highlights that nearly 60% of adults with obesity also have high blood pressure, while 23% are affected by diabetes. Obesity is a leading risk factor for chronic conditions such as heart disease, liver disease, and stroke.
Anne Peters, MD, professor at the Keck School of Medicine, cautioned against celebrating the results too soon. “While this data is promising, we need to observe the trend over a longer period. Medications are helping, but sustainable health improvements require comprehensive strategies,” Peters stated.
BMI and Health: A Holistic Perspective
While BMI remains the most common measure of obesity, experts stress that it should not be viewed in isolation. A person’s weight is just one aspect of their overall health, and other factors—such as diet, physical activity, and metabolic markers—play equally important roles.
“You can’t rely solely on weight loss,” Peters added. “Combining a healthier diet and exercise with medical therapies is critical for achieving long-term health benefits.”
A Promising Shift
The findings offer a glimpse of hope in the fight against obesity. Weight loss drugs, lifestyle improvements, and a renewed focus on health post-pandemic are powerful forces that may help reverse this decades-long public health crisis. While experts remain cautiously optimistic, continued research and accessible treatments will be essential to sustain and amplify this promising trend.